JCI Analysis Through SBI Interest Rate, World Oil Price, World Gold Price, Rupiah Exchange Rate, Nikkei 225 Index, and Dow Jones Index in 2016–2020

Abstract

The capital market is one of today's economic instruments that experience

very rapid development. One measure of the performance of the capital

market is the stock index. There are many factors that can affect the Stock Index, including domestic interest rates, foreign exchange rates, international economic conditions, a country's economic cycle, inflation rates, tax regulations, and the amount of money in circulation (Samsul, M., 2008). During the observation period from 2016 to 2019, there was a phenomenon where the relationship between macroeconomic variables and JCI movements did not match the theory. This is supported by the gap in the results of previous studies. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of the SBI interest rate, world oil prices, world gold prices, the rupiah exchange rate, the Nikkei 225 Index, and the Dow Jones Index on the JCI. The analytical method used in this study is the multiple regression analysis methods performed with SPSS 16. One of the requirements to perform the multiple analysis test is the classical assumption test. This is necessary so that the resulting regression equation is BLUE (Best, Linear, Unbiased, Estimator). In addition, to assess the goodness of fit of a model, the coefficient of determination test, F-test, and t-test are carried out. This study uses monthly data from 2016 until 2020 for each research variable. The results of this study indicate that the SBI Interest Rate and the Rupiah Exchange rate have a negative effect on the JCI. Meanwhile, the variables of World Oil Price, World Gold Price, Nikkei 225 Index, and Dow Jones Index have a positive effect on the JCI. In addition, it is found that the adjusted square value is 96.1%. It means that 96.1% of the JCI movement can be predicted from the movement of the seven independent variables.