Implementing Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for Oil Production Scenario from TMB & KRG Field Development: Case Study of PT Pertamina Hulu Rokan Zone 4

Pertamina Hulu Rokan (PHR) carries out the duties of Pertamina's Upstream Subholding to manage the business and operations of upstream oil and gas business activities in the Regional 1 – Sumatra region. Zone 4 is one of the working areas that contributes greatly to PHR oil production. Zone 4 manages oil and gas fields in the Southern Sumatra region which has been producing for more than 40 years and has experienced a decline in production from year to year due to the decline in performance of the main oil and gas structure. The achievement of oil production is currently only 95% of the target set by SKK Migas. The Subsurface Department conducts studies on structures that have the potential to increase oil production in Zone 4, one of which is the Teluk Merah complex consisting of the Teluk Merah Baru structure (TMB) and the Karanganyer structure (KRG). The latest analysis gives results, oil reserves of 9.41 MMBO will be generated through the development scenario of 21 Oil Production Wells (18 Infill Wells + 2 Step out Wells + 1 reactivation well). What must be solved is the problem of how to handle the oil production of the two structures. A VFT (Value Focused Thinking) approach combined with an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to address the problem. VFT is used to generate selection process criteria and to narrow down alternative oil production scenario solutions from TMB & KRG. AHP is used to prioritize alternative scenarios best of the three proposed alternatives. Four experts conducted FGD (Focused Group Discussion) to assess each scenario by considering these criteria. Generated scenarios to build new production facilities in the TMB & KRG structure area as the best scenario with the preference result is 58%. The alternative selection process considers costs (Project Cost & Operational Cost) and benefits (Oil Gain, Operability, and Time to Implement). The selection of this scenario could increase Zone 4 oil production by 9.1 MMBO.