Scenario Planning of Islamic Banking Industry Development in Indonesia
##plugins.themes.bootstrap3.article.main##
Islamic banking has become known in Indonesia since the operation of Bank Muamalat Indonesia, which was initiated by the Association of Indonesian Muslim Intellectuals (ICMI), the Indonesian Ulama Council (MUI) and the government, in 1992. The large number of Islamic banking players existing now in fact does not automatically boost the growth of the market share of Islamic banking assets to total bank’s assets in Indonesia. Islamic banking had experienced a trap of 5% market share for quite a long time before finally being able to pass it in 2016 and reached 7,03% in August 2022. The purpose of this study is to provide strategy through scenario planning for the development of the Islamic banking industry in Indonesia so that it can add insight and alternatives for all relevant stakeholders. This research will use a qualitative research methodology that uses primary data and secondary data. Scenario planning is developed based on the results of an analysis of the driving forces which are considered as critical uncertainties. The driving forces themselves are obtained based on the results of an analysis using the Porter's 5 Forces framework, PESTEL and SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, Threat) analysis to find out its relevancy. These driving forces were then discussed through in-depth interviews with respondents to determine which were the most critical (Critical Uncertainties). Two critical uncertainties defined during this study are Government and Regulations Support as well as Prices and Services. Four (4) scenarios are built using those two critical uncertainties following the scenario planning methodology. The scenarios are called Fast and Furious, Imperfect, The Survivor, and The Skyfall.
Downloads
References
-
Ahmad, A., Rehman, K. U., & Saif, M. I. (2010). Islamic banking experience of Pakistan: Comparison between Islamic and Conventional Banks. International Journal of Business and Management, 5(2). https://doi.org/10.5539/ijbm.v5n2p137.
Google Scholar
1
-
Ali, M. A. (2021). Impact of Islamic financial literacy, subjective norms, risk perception and perceived behavioral control on adoption of Islamic banking in Pakistan. Revista Gestão Inovação e Tecnologias, 11(3), 220–233. https://doi.org/10.47059/revistageintec.v11i3.1929.
Google Scholar
2
-
Antonio, M. S. (2001). Islamic bank - From theory to practice. 1st ed. Gema Insani Press.
Google Scholar
3
-
Asutay M, Md., & Sidek, N. Z. (2020). Political economy of Islamic banking growth: Does political regime and institutions, governance and political risks matter? International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2021;26; 4226-4261. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.2011.
Google Scholar
4
-
Ateed, H., & Rehman, A.U. (2020). Determinants of bank choice in Afghanistan. Journal of Islamic Finance, 9(1), 061–075. https://journals.iium.edu.my/iiibfjournal/index.php/jif/article/view/390.
Google Scholar
5
-
Badan Pusat Statistik. (2022, August 17). Bonus Demografi dan Harapan Kedepannya mobile [Demographic bonus and future hopes]. Retrieved from https://jambi.bps.go.id/news/ 2022/08/17/261/bonus-demografi-dan-harapan-kedepannya.html.
Google Scholar
6
-
Bank Service Excellence Monitor (BSEM). Https://Mri-Research-Ind.com/. https://mri-research-ind.com/home/bsem/ mriresearchindmarketingresearchindonesiamarketingresearchdiindonesiaperusahaanrisetdiindonesiarisetpasar.
Google Scholar
7
-
Bbc.com (2023, January 2). IMF peringatkan sepertiga ekonomi global alami resesi pada 2023, Menkeu Sri Mulyani: Indonesia juga akan hadapi 'ujian sangat berat' mobile [IMF warns that a third of the global economy will experience a recession in 2023, Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani: Indonesia will also face a 'very tough test']. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/ indonesia/articles/c51k9y4lnp5o.
Google Scholar
8
-
Brilian, A. P. (2022, December 22). Sederet Penyebab Ekonomi Global Suram dan Dampaknya ke Indonesia mobile [A series of causes for the gloomy global economy and its impact on Indonesia]. Retrieved from Detik.com: https://finance.detik.com/berita-ekonomi-bisnis/d-6475568/sederet-penyebab-ekonomi-global-suram-dan-dampaknya-ke-indonesia.
Google Scholar
9
-
Chandra, M. (2021, October 5). Perbankan digital: Yay atau Nay? mobile [Digital Banking: Yay or Nay?]. Retrieved from Cnbcindonesia.com: https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/opini/ 20211005112723-14-281508/ perbankan-digital-yay-atau-nay.
Google Scholar
10
-
Dawami, Q. (2020). Factors influencing the preference of customers towards Islamic banking: evidence from Malaysia. Journal of Islamic Economic Laws, 3(1), 48–67. https://doi.org/10.23917/jisel.v3i1.10191.
Google Scholar
11
-
Garvin, D. A., & Levesque, L. C. (2006, July 31). A note on scenario planning [Material]. Harvard Business School Publishing.
Google Scholar
12
-
Hadziq, M. F., & Ismiyanti, N. (2022). Non-Muslim perception of Islamic bank: Is religiosity more important than location, promotion and products. Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Islam (JEBIS) | Journal of Islamic Economics and Business, 8(1), 54–68. https://doi.org/10.20473/jebis.v8i1.30799.
Google Scholar
13
-
Haniyah & Manual, V. (2023). Impact of service quality on customer satisfaction in Islamic banks of Qatar. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.6007/ijarems/v12-i1/15967.
Google Scholar
14
-
Harbani, R. (2023, January 14). 2023 Pertumbuhan Perbankan Syariah Diprediksi di Atas Rata-rata Bank Konvensional mobile [2023, Islamic banking growth is predicted above the average of conventional banks]. Retrieved from Detik.com: https://www.detik.com/hikmah/khazanah/d-6515437/2023-pertumbuhan-perbankan-syariah-diprediksi-di-atas-rata-rata-bank-konvensional.
Google Scholar
15
-
Iqbal, M., & Molyneux, P. (2006). Thirty years of Islamic banking: history, performance and prospects. Choice Reviews Online, 43(06), 43–3493. https://doi.org/10.5860/choice.43- 3493.
Google Scholar
16
-
Kardoyo, Nurkhin, A., M., Mukhibad, H., & Aprilia, F. D. (2020). The effect of knowledge, promotion, and religiosity on intention to use Islamic banking services. International Journal of Financial Research, 11(2). https://doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v11n2p128.
Google Scholar
17
-
Kure, E. (2023, March 12). In ASEAN, Indonesians are the most passionate about using the Internet. Investor.id. https://investor.id/it-and-telecommunication/324241/di-asean-orang-indonesia-paling-getol-pakai-internet.
Google Scholar
18
-
Komite Nasional Ekonomi Keuangan Syariah. (2019). Kajian Konversi, Merger, Holding dan Pembentukan Bank BUMN Syariah mobile [Conversion, merger, holding and establishment of sharia bumn bank studies]. Retrieved from https://knks.go.id/storage/upload/1583204515Kajian%20 Konversi%20Merger%20Holding%20dan%20Pembentukan%20Bank%20BUMN%20Syariah.pdf.
Google Scholar
19
-
Latip, M., Yahya, M. H., Junaina, M. (2017). Factors influencing customer's acceptance of islamic banking products and services. Ikonomika, 2(1), 1-18. doi:10.24042/febi.v2i1.681.
Google Scholar
20
-
Lindgren, M., & Bandhold, H. (2009). Strategic reframing – The Oxford scenario planning approach. 2nd ed. p. 25. Palgrave MacMillan. https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230233584.
Google Scholar
21
-
Nahar, S., & Sarker, N. (2016). Are macroeconomic factors substantially influential for Islamic bank financing? Cross-Country Evidence. IOSR Journal of Business and Management, 18(6), 20-27. https://doi.org/10.9790/487X-1806012027.
Google Scholar
22
-
Nawaz, H. (2019). An investigation into factors that determine the growth rate in the Islamic banking and finance. Future Business Journal, 5(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s43093-019-0003-7.
Google Scholar
23
-
Nazir, M., Rahman, A. U., Zeerak, U., Anwar, Z., & Khana, S. (2022). Customer preferences towards selection of Islamic banking: a quantitative approach. Journal of Positive School Psychology, 6(11), 1159-1174.
Google Scholar
24
-
Nisaputra, R. (2017, November 10). BI Target Pangsa Pasar Perbankan Syariah Sentuh 20% mobile [Bank Indonesia targets Islamic banking market share to touch 20%]. Retrieved from Infobanknews.com: https://infobanknews.com/bi-target-pangsa-pasar-perbankan-syariah-sentuh-20/.
Google Scholar
25
-
Njagi, D. W., & Gekara, M. (2019). Factors influencing the development of Islamic banking in Kenya: A case of national bank of Kenya. The Strategic Journal of Business & Change Management, 6 (4), 361–376.
Google Scholar
26
-
Nurkholida, F., & Damayanti, S. M. (2021). Islamic financial literacy and other determinant factors that influence the intention to use Islamic banking. Proceeding Book of the 6th ICMEM 2021, Bandung:11-13 August 2021.
Google Scholar
27
-
Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. (2022). Survey Nasional Literasi dan Inklusi Keuangan, 2022 mobile [National Financial Literacy and Inclusion Survey, 2022]. Retrieved from https://www.ojk.go.id/id/berita-dan-kegiatan/info-terkini/Pages/Infografis-Survei-Nasional-Literasi-dan-Inklusi-Keuangan Tahun 2022.aspx.
Google Scholar
28
-
Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. (2022). Statistik Perbankan Syariah mobile [Islamic Banking Statistics]. Retrieved from https://www.ojk.go.id/id/kanal/syariah/data-dan-statistik/statistik-perbankan -syariah/Default.
Google Scholar
29
-
Otoritas Jasa Keuangan. (2022). Statistik Perbankan Indonesia [Islamic Banking Statistics]. Retrieved from https://www.ojk.go.id/id/kanal/perbankan/data-dan-statistik/statistik-per-bankan -indonesia/default.aspx.
Google Scholar
30
-
Polindi, M. (2018). Implementasi ijarah dan ijarah muntahia bit-tamlik (imbt) dalam perbankan syariah di indonesia mobile [Implementation of Ijarah & Ijarah muntahia bit-tamlik (IMBT) in Indonesian Islamic Banking]. Al-Intaj: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Perbankan Syariah, 2(1). doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.29300/aij.v2i1.1105.
Google Scholar
31
-
Ramirez, R., & Wilkinson, A. (2016). Strategic Reframing the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach. 1st ed. Oxford University Press.
Google Scholar
32
-
Saptasari, K., & Aji, H. M. (2020). Factors affecting Muslim non-customers to use Islamic bank: Religiosity, knowledge, and perceived quality. Jurnal Ekonomi & Keuangan Islam, 6(2), 165–180. https://doi.org/10.20885/jeki.vol6.iss2.art7.
Google Scholar
33
-
Satutikirono, R., & Sunitiyoso, Y. (2021). Applying scenario planning in the future of bank oranye priority banking services. Journal of International Conference Proceedings, 4(3). https://doi.org/10.32535/jicp.v4i3.1301.
Google Scholar
34
-
Sukrawi, A. (2022, December 19). Era digital eranya bsi mobile [The Digital Era is the BSI Era]. Retrieved from Detik.com: https://news.detik.com/kolom/d-6469883/era-digital-eranya-bsi-mobile.
Google Scholar
35
-
Tabash, M. I., & Dhankar, R. S. (2014). Islamic financial development and economic growth – empirical evidence from United Arab Emirates. Journal of Emerging Economies and Islamic Research, 2(3), 15. https://doi.org/10.24191/jeeir.v2i3.9630.
Google Scholar
36
-
Tara, N., Irshad, M., Khan, M. R., Yamin, M., & Rizwan, M. (2014). Factors influencing adoption of Islamic banking: a study from Pakistan. Journal of Public Administration and Governance, 4(3), 352. https://doi.org/10.5296/jpag.v4i3.6677.
Google Scholar
37
-
Toarik, M. (2022, December 6). Pangsa Pasar 7,03%, Penguatan Perbankan Syariah Perlu Terus Didorong mobile [7.03% Market Share, Strengthening Islamic Banking Needs to be Continuously Encouraged]. Retrieved from Investor.id: https://investor.id/finance/315409/pangsa-pasar703-penguatan-perbankan-syariah-perlu-terus-didorong.
Google Scholar
38
-
WorldBank. (2022). https://data.worldbank.org/ indicator/SP.POP. TOTL?most_recent_value_desc=true, accessed April 4, 2023.
Google Scholar
39
-
World Bank, (2020, Januari 30). Aspiring Indonesia: Expanding the middle class. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/ indonesia/publication/ aspiring-indonesia-expanding-the-middle-class, access March 5, 2023).
Google Scholar
40
-
Zaman, Z., Mehmood, B., Aftab, R., Siddique, M. S., & Ameen, Y. (2017). Role of Islamic financial literacy in the adoption of Islamic banking services: empirical evidence from Lahore, Pakistan. Journal of Islamic Business and Management (JIBM), 7(2). https://doi.org/10.26501/jibm/2017.0702-006.
Google Scholar
41
Most read articles by the same author(s)
-
Hasia Ahmadi,
Yos Sunitiyoso,
Agung Wicaksono,
Scenario Planning of PLN Indonesia Power in 2030: To Be a Leading Green and Sustainable Power Generation Company , European Journal of Business and Management Research: Vol. 8 No. 4 (2023) -
Irfan Naufaldi,
Yos Sunitiyoso,
Scenario Planning Approach of Coal Market Sales on PT ABCoal Towards Energy Transitions Era , European Journal of Business and Management Research: Vol. 9 No. 1 (2024) -
Arief L. Hakim,
Yos Sunitiyoso,
Decision Analysis on Selecting the Best PSC Scheme between Cost Recovery vs. Gross Split for Block Extension, Case Study: Panca Block , European Journal of Business and Management Research: Vol. 9 No. 6 (2024)