Evaluation of Risk Parity Asset Allocation Strategy in Indonesia Mutual Fund During 2010–2019 Period

Indonesia as the largest country in Southeast Asia have the highest GDP among the other countries in the region. In 2011, McKinsey & Company conducted a research to understand the annual consumer spending trend in Indonesia. According to the research, financial services will be the main consumption in Indonesia in 2030. Despite those promising situations, mutual fund industry in Indonesia was facing a big challenge in 2019. During 2019, Indonesia Financial Authority (OJK) has suspended 37 mismanaged mutual fund products from several investment managers. And actively managed mutual funds will have more exposure on this mismanagement risk.

Aside from mismanagement and underperforming risk of actively managed mutual fund, investor also facing high risk of equity asset class. Recently, IDX Composite (IHSG) experience a tremendous -28% drop in Q1 2020. Biggest peak to bottom drawdown during that period was -37,49% from 14 January 2020 until 24 March 2020. This situation creates a challenge for mutual fund sales agent (APERD).

But a challenging situation also offers opportunities. Mutual fund sales agent (APERD) that can offer optimum asset allocation suggestion that can give maximum risk protection can take advantage of these situation. One such unique strategy that has not been applied by other mutual fund sales agent (APERD) is risk parity that became popular after 2008 financial crisis.

This research applied risk parity framework in passively managed mutual fund because most of actively managed mutual funds in Indonesia underperform the benchmark in the 10-year period. Because of that, passively managed mutual funds provide better investment opportunity. Four equity indexes (LQ45, Jakarta Islamic Index, Bisnis 27, and Sri Kehati) and one passively managed fixed income mutual fund (ABF Indonesia Bond Index Fund) that have existed for 10-year period was chosen to apply the risk parity method. Sharpe ratio calculation is used to evaluate the portfolio performance compared to commonly used portfolio strategy in the world according to 2018 Legg Mason Global Investment Survey.

Result of the analysis is that risk parity portfolio offer better Sharpe ratio compared to commonly used portfolio strategy in the world. Result of 2009 - April 2020 back-testing process also show that risk parity can protect investor from equity market downturn in 77.3% of the case. With above result, risk parity can offer better risk protection for Indonesia individual investor.